From the wheat that stops growing at 27 degrees; to the dairy cow that simply stops making milk due to the heat; to a French cornfield cooked in a two-week heat dome; to a way-high grocery receipt in Ohio; why the one climate driver that arrives without a forecast, in hours, not seasons, has quietly become the single most devastating climate variable standing between the world and its next hunger crisis.
Thanks Sean, I will. There are solutions, but diversifying and scaling up will be difficult as will getting finance and distribution for the Global South and small farmers in the Global North as well.
This post should be the final wake-up call for climate deniers:
"Every staple cereal has a temperature above which its reproduction simply fails, and those numbers are lower, and closer to being exceeded, than most people who eat the grain in a bowl of cereal, in bread, in pasta, in a rice bowl or on a cob of corn will ever guess. We truly were in a “Goldilocks” climate before we started burning fossil fuels and emitting CO2 into the atmosphere."
I would make an exception to that for small-scale rabbit raising, and excellent way to convert inedible vegetation into high-quality protein, and unlike poultry, has all the essential amino acids.
The ability to grow and store grains at scale is what made civilizations possible, that ability is evaporating at a non-linear pace.
When a cow, goat or sheep stops lactating, for whatever reason, it won't start again until after the next breeding season.
There is one recurring error I need to correct.
Everyone keeps quoting the 1.5C meme, its corporate disinformation linked to the shifting baseline paradigm.
Using 1750 as a baseline we are already at 2C, including the Bronze age and Iron age emissions and why wouldn't we? we are at least 2.29C. Hence all the chaos we are witnessing.
Ignoring centuries of anthropogenic warming doesn't make them go away.
Please take this as a constructive criticism for an otherwise great article.
Great point. I am just following the norm which people are using most commonly the 1850-1900 baseline which is alleged to be before the industrial revolution really kicked in. You are totally right that substantial industrial activity from 1750 and even before. In the next couple weeks I'll be talking about the impact of the accelerated warming on when 2 degrees of warming is going to arrive and it is going to be as early as the 2030s where the IPCC had predicted the 2050s. If we add in the 1750-1850 emissions as you say it is already here, but the point that from here on in it is going to get warmer faster is true no matter the baseline.
Due to this years El-Nino A N D extremely P O O R politics, fuelling B O T H the duracity and strength of rising temperatures and unequal impacts A N D ; the hunger in itself.
“A drought you can see coming for months. A heat wave you can see coming only for days. By the time you can feel it, the pollen is already dead, the milk has already stopped, and the forecast of food production for the season has already dropped precipitously.”
One of the reasons of this hunger alert is straight forward;
wheat can not thrive at temperatures above 2 7 degrees celsius. Rice needs water, and are predicted to extinction as a human source for nutrition; I F we continue at this rate; around 2 0 5 0.
T.ex F R A N C E just experienced the hottest July ever recorded.
Still; I F we changed our agricultural use of fertile land; into growing primarily greens on regenerative basics; and S T O P P E D the richests parts of the worlds absurd O V E R C O N S U M P T I O N of meat; with devestating impacts on Amazonas and our environments while limited our food waste;
We could feed the hungry W H I L E "beating" the heat ( in a few houndreds ( 1 0 0 0 - outcome varies, nukes .. well, then forget about it ... ) of years..) by reducing our emissions from the industrial meatbased, soyaextensive productins; into restoring soil and securing more and cleaner water.
And; feed the hungry; I F we redistributed Aid, resources and funds.
This is a great comment detailing the dynamics but the solutions will still fail.
I'm not here to deny the science. I'm here to question whether the institutional response to it has failed, and to explore what that means for how we live now. Most people either shout or surrender. I do neither. If you think my information is wrong, show me—with evidence. I'm genuinely open to being corrected and learning something new, and better.
More info I'll add here -- Tim Benton Systemic Lock-In / COLLAPSE
Systemic Lock-In: Why Complex Industrial Systems Cannot Transition
Food system as a concrete case study (Tim Benton).
Why the Food System Is About to Collapse Tim Benton 27 Jan 2026 LONDON
In this episode of Deep Seed, we speak with Tim Benton, leading expert on global food security, to understand what’s driving the collapse of our food systems — and what it would take to build something truly regenerative.
🧠 In this episode:
– Why the current food system is fundamentally unsustainable
Climate discourse systematically avoids this structural layer.
Instead it frames:
Individual behavior change
Policy tweaks
Technology substitution
Market incentives
These assume the system is reformable.
Benton explicitly says:
The system can only tweak itself incrementally at the margins.
That collides with climate timelines, which require non-incremental transformation.
Core Thesis:
Industrial civilization is locked into growth by political ideology, corporate power, infrastructural path dependency, and thermodynamic constraints, making transformative climate mitigation structurally infeasible rather than merely politically delayed.
Structural Lock-In Layers
Political Lock-In:
Democratic and authoritarian regimes require economic growth for legitimacy, stability, and electoral survival.
Industrial–Corporate Lock-In:
Globalized corporations possess economic and lobbying power exceeding many states, enabling policy veto through employment and capital flight threats.
Historical / Capital Stock Lock-In:
Infrastructure, cities, agriculture, and energy systems have multi-decade lifespans, making rapid systemic change economically destructive.
Thermodynamic Lock-In:
Economic growth correlates with energy throughput and material consumption (Garrett, Bartlett), constraining decoupling narratives.
Exemplar Case: Food System (Tim Benton)
Benton identifies three lock-ins (political ideology of cheap food, corporate consolidation, and infrastructural path dependency) demonstrating why complex industrial systems can only change incrementally at the margins.
Implication for Climate Discourse
Climate discourse assumes political will can override system dynamics; however, political will is structurally suppressed by growth regime stability requirements.
“A Theory of Why Systemic Reform Narratives Fail”
My materials compiled here come from a variety of disciplines and perspectives, including energy systems, ecology, finance, complexity theory, and historical analysis. They are assembled to highlight recurring structural patterns that emerge across complex systems under stress. Readers may observe similar dynamics in different contexts — diminishing returns to complexity, network fragility, resilience erosion, and cascading interdependencies. This compilation is intended as a knowledge resource for exploring these patterns across multiple domains, supporting reflection on systemic pressures shaping our collective present and near future. Many interpretations are possible; the materials are offered with openness to alternative perspectives and the forces driving humanity’s evolving responses. The focus is on illuminating structural insights to guide thinking, rather than on advocacy or asserting certainty.................
I’m afraid I don’t understand what part of my article you are taking issue with. I don’t just shout or surrender either. I do think the institutional response has fail which is shown by rapidly increasing climate change and a failure to respond to famines in 2025 or 2.5 billion people being food insecure more than 600 million people being in chronic hunger and 266 million in acute hunger. The cuts to international aid by the US, five European countries and Japan, the cuts to their safety nets in their home countries, the failure to adapt farming practices for a changing climate all point to the institutional response to both climate and hunger not working. If you have a specific thing that I said that you disagree with, I’ll be happy to respond.
I'm not taking issue or complaining about your article Mark. As I said, in the beginning, "This is a great comment detailing the dynamics but the solutions will still fail."
I'm only adding in further information and perspectives as why it is I think the solutions to address climate change along with the collapse of agriculture will fail. Prof. Tim Benton is only one voice but I thought he explains the systemic issues really well. When you have the time, watch his interview or read his articles and papers on the subject. It's a very good analysis. I'm was also addressing the broader systems driving everything toward global collapse outlining the key points not only the agriculture sector. Just my two cents to add to the good work you've already done. . Best wishes.
Thanks Sean, I will. There are solutions, but diversifying and scaling up will be difficult as will getting finance and distribution for the Global South and small farmers in the Global North as well.
This post should be the final wake-up call for climate deniers:
"Every staple cereal has a temperature above which its reproduction simply fails, and those numbers are lower, and closer to being exceeded, than most people who eat the grain in a bowl of cereal, in bread, in pasta, in a rice bowl or on a cob of corn will ever guess. We truly were in a “Goldilocks” climate before we started burning fossil fuels and emitting CO2 into the atmosphere."
I will cross-post.
Thanks, getting the word out is the idea!
Anyone who thinks farming animals for food is viable even now, let alone in the future, is nuts.
I would make an exception to that for small-scale rabbit raising, and excellent way to convert inedible vegetation into high-quality protein, and unlike poultry, has all the essential amino acids.
Brilliant writing on a horrifying topic. Thank you for putting this together, the insights are incredibly valuable.
Thanks for your kind comment. Someone has to get the word out.
The ability to grow and store grains at scale is what made civilizations possible, that ability is evaporating at a non-linear pace.
When a cow, goat or sheep stops lactating, for whatever reason, it won't start again until after the next breeding season.
There is one recurring error I need to correct.
Everyone keeps quoting the 1.5C meme, its corporate disinformation linked to the shifting baseline paradigm.
Using 1750 as a baseline we are already at 2C, including the Bronze age and Iron age emissions and why wouldn't we? we are at least 2.29C. Hence all the chaos we are witnessing.
Ignoring centuries of anthropogenic warming doesn't make them go away.
Please take this as a constructive criticism for an otherwise great article.
https://kevinhester.live/2024/12/18/the-influence-of-climatic-change-on-the-late-bronze-age-collapse-and-the-greek-dark-ages/
Great point. I am just following the norm which people are using most commonly the 1850-1900 baseline which is alleged to be before the industrial revolution really kicked in. You are totally right that substantial industrial activity from 1750 and even before. In the next couple weeks I'll be talking about the impact of the accelerated warming on when 2 degrees of warming is going to arrive and it is going to be as early as the 2030s where the IPCC had predicted the 2050s. If we add in the 1750-1850 emissions as you say it is already here, but the point that from here on in it is going to get warmer faster is true no matter the baseline.
Dear MArk; I did a bit of sample here; and recommended you once again; like this on https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61565699637497 " 5 0 / M I L L I O N / P E O P L E
F A C I N G / H U N G E R
A L E R T !
Due to this years El-Nino A N D extremely P O O R politics, fuelling B O T H the duracity and strength of rising temperatures and unequal impacts A N D ; the hunger in itself.
“A drought you can see coming for months. A heat wave you can see coming only for days. By the time you can feel it, the pollen is already dead, the milk has already stopped, and the forecast of food production for the season has already dropped precipitously.”
One of the reasons of this hunger alert is straight forward;
wheat can not thrive at temperatures above 2 7 degrees celsius. Rice needs water, and are predicted to extinction as a human source for nutrition; I F we continue at this rate; around 2 0 5 0.
T.ex F R A N C E just experienced the hottest July ever recorded.
Still; I F we changed our agricultural use of fertile land; into growing primarily greens on regenerative basics; and S T O P P E D the richests parts of the worlds absurd O V E R C O N S U M P T I O N of meat; with devestating impacts on Amazonas and our environments while limited our food waste;
We could feed the hungry W H I L E "beating" the heat ( in a few houndreds ( 1 0 0 0 - outcome varies, nukes .. well, then forget about it ... ) of years..) by reducing our emissions from the industrial meatbased, soyaextensive productins; into restoring soil and securing more and cleaner water.
And; feed the hungry; I F we redistributed Aid, resources and funds.
Earth, Science and I declare Climate Emergency
M O R E on this subjects; Ill recommend again Mark Roberts; https://www.4hunger.org/.../heat-the-master-variable-how...
and the article from where this graph has been depicted, based on figures and the latest report from United Nations from The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/.../el-nino-could-push-50m...
Greenpeace International Arctic news
Astoundingly comprehensive overview!
This is a great comment detailing the dynamics but the solutions will still fail.
I'm not here to deny the science. I'm here to question whether the institutional response to it has failed, and to explore what that means for how we live now. Most people either shout or surrender. I do neither. If you think my information is wrong, show me—with evidence. I'm genuinely open to being corrected and learning something new, and better.
My basic response summary of why is here https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/beware-media-hype-its-not-the-el/comment/311604573
More info I'll add here -- Tim Benton Systemic Lock-In / COLLAPSE
Systemic Lock-In: Why Complex Industrial Systems Cannot Transition
Food system as a concrete case study (Tim Benton).
Why the Food System Is About to Collapse Tim Benton 27 Jan 2026 LONDON
In this episode of Deep Seed, we speak with Tim Benton, leading expert on global food security, to understand what’s driving the collapse of our food systems — and what it would take to build something truly regenerative.
🧠 In this episode:
– Why the current food system is fundamentally unsustainable
– What “planetary boundaries” means in practice
– The myth of green growth
– How our diets and farming systems must evolve
– The 3 “lock-ins” keeping us stuck
– What gives Tim Benton hope for the future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3umIwaeRE8
Climate discourse systematically avoids this structural layer.
Instead it frames:
Individual behavior change
Policy tweaks
Technology substitution
Market incentives
These assume the system is reformable.
Benton explicitly says:
The system can only tweak itself incrementally at the margins.
That collides with climate timelines, which require non-incremental transformation.
Core Thesis:
Industrial civilization is locked into growth by political ideology, corporate power, infrastructural path dependency, and thermodynamic constraints, making transformative climate mitigation structurally infeasible rather than merely politically delayed.
Structural Lock-In Layers
Political Lock-In:
Democratic and authoritarian regimes require economic growth for legitimacy, stability, and electoral survival.
Industrial–Corporate Lock-In:
Globalized corporations possess economic and lobbying power exceeding many states, enabling policy veto through employment and capital flight threats.
Historical / Capital Stock Lock-In:
Infrastructure, cities, agriculture, and energy systems have multi-decade lifespans, making rapid systemic change economically destructive.
Thermodynamic Lock-In:
Economic growth correlates with energy throughput and material consumption (Garrett, Bartlett), constraining decoupling narratives.
Exemplar Case: Food System (Tim Benton)
Benton identifies three lock-ins (political ideology of cheap food, corporate consolidation, and infrastructural path dependency) demonstrating why complex industrial systems can only change incrementally at the margins.
Implication for Climate Discourse
Climate discourse assumes political will can override system dynamics; however, political will is structurally suppressed by growth regime stability requirements.
“A Theory of Why Systemic Reform Narratives Fail”
My materials compiled here come from a variety of disciplines and perspectives, including energy systems, ecology, finance, complexity theory, and historical analysis. They are assembled to highlight recurring structural patterns that emerge across complex systems under stress. Readers may observe similar dynamics in different contexts — diminishing returns to complexity, network fragility, resilience erosion, and cascading interdependencies. This compilation is intended as a knowledge resource for exploring these patterns across multiple domains, supporting reflection on systemic pressures shaping our collective present and near future. Many interpretations are possible; the materials are offered with openness to alternative perspectives and the forces driving humanity’s evolving responses. The focus is on illuminating structural insights to guide thinking, rather than on advocacy or asserting certainty.................
I’m afraid I don’t understand what part of my article you are taking issue with. I don’t just shout or surrender either. I do think the institutional response has fail which is shown by rapidly increasing climate change and a failure to respond to famines in 2025 or 2.5 billion people being food insecure more than 600 million people being in chronic hunger and 266 million in acute hunger. The cuts to international aid by the US, five European countries and Japan, the cuts to their safety nets in their home countries, the failure to adapt farming practices for a changing climate all point to the institutional response to both climate and hunger not working. If you have a specific thing that I said that you disagree with, I’ll be happy to respond.
I'm not taking issue or complaining about your article Mark. As I said, in the beginning, "This is a great comment detailing the dynamics but the solutions will still fail."
I'm only adding in further information and perspectives as why it is I think the solutions to address climate change along with the collapse of agriculture will fail. Prof. Tim Benton is only one voice but I thought he explains the systemic issues really well. When you have the time, watch his interview or read his articles and papers on the subject. It's a very good analysis. I'm was also addressing the broader systems driving everything toward global collapse outlining the key points not only the agriculture sector. Just my two cents to add to the good work you've already done. . Best wishes.
– What gives Tim Benton hope for the future?
Nothing does. Collapse of agriculture and the other systems is unavoidable. He explains why that is so.