In Central America’s Dry Corridor, a farming system built around a second chance is losing both chances in the same year. In Panama, the Canal Dries and North America gets the rain.
This was a great read, and the Brazil section is where it really clicks for me: pointing out that a record soybean crop arriving late is the mechanism by which the safrinha maize is lost, rather than a separate risk, is the sharpest move in the piece. Most coverage stops at seasonal totals.
What that framing opened up: the same logic is already sitting in your Dry Corridor section. The primera did not just fail on rainfall, it ran late, and the late harvest is one of the reasons FEWS NET expects the postrera to go in delayed and on reduced area. Two very different farming systems, same transmission route, which is timing rather than totals.
If that holds, seasonal rainfall anomaly maps will systematically understate this event, because the loss lives in the shifted calendar. It also sets the deadline on the anticipatory action you describe at the end: it is fixed by the planting window, not by the drought index.
Excellent, thorough article Mark. Regardless of this El Niño, the entire global food supply needs to be reexamined. Trade deals that have created this global system for plunder and profit need to go. Regional, local, in season—the way it was for thousands of years is necessary.
Horrifyingly, food has been built on fossil fuels and created our population problem. It's difficult to see a way through this without massive tragedy with the cruel politics of the world we live in.
On 18 June, FAO and WFP launched the first joint anticipatory action appeal either agency has made: $202 million to protect 8.8 million people across 22 countries. They already had funding to reach 1.2 million. So it only needed $176 million more. In the weeks since then not a single traditional donor government has made a donation to this pro-active humanitarian aid. We are now only 8 weeks from when Southern Africa plants their only maize crop of the year right into the height of the El Niño. Without that aid providing drought resistant seed, fertilizer and fuel the people of Southern Africa are going to be facing an unprecedented crisis. We do need a new way to grow and distribute food. Incredible that neither the US, the 5 EU donors nor Japan that made foreign aid cuts in 2025 has reinstated that aid in the face of the largest /?El Niño in history. Cruel and Evil.
That is chump change, what, the cost of a couple of cruise missiles?
Hate to think it, hate to say it, but I believe after five years of research and writing population reduction is the goal, not a side effect of the energy, overshoot and climate crisis. Evil indeed.
Obvious design error for the canal, should have been large pipe between each end, so water from a lowering ship helps raise one going up. Yes, lots of plumbing, but obviously needed now.
The critical aspect of subsistence living is isolation from any assistance, essentially a rejection from human concern, and ignored because the Rich find nothing else there to extract.
They definitely need some new way. It's either ships or drinking water, hard choice during a drought. Lucky the early rains were strong so we don't have to see which water use the government would pick when push comes to shove!
You bet. Yet you do not, as a sceintist;-) Dear Mark; Ill try to organize a global march. So.. I might not be - alwayes there. And Im blocked by fb again.. If.. I get through to global organisations with the "easy" idea; the first global march for P E A C E on E A R T H ( with Earth) Ill let you know, and I know you will walk with us. Love You!
Great writeup, Mark! So many privileged people don't get it.. the innocent poor starve and broil as they squander Earth.
You said it so right!
The innocent poor starve and broil as they squander Earth!
This was a great read, and the Brazil section is where it really clicks for me: pointing out that a record soybean crop arriving late is the mechanism by which the safrinha maize is lost, rather than a separate risk, is the sharpest move in the piece. Most coverage stops at seasonal totals.
What that framing opened up: the same logic is already sitting in your Dry Corridor section. The primera did not just fail on rainfall, it ran late, and the late harvest is one of the reasons FEWS NET expects the postrera to go in delayed and on reduced area. Two very different farming systems, same transmission route, which is timing rather than totals.
If that holds, seasonal rainfall anomaly maps will systematically understate this event, because the loss lives in the shifted calendar. It also sets the deadline on the anticipatory action you describe at the end: it is fixed by the planting window, not by the drought index.
Excellent, thorough article Mark. Regardless of this El Niño, the entire global food supply needs to be reexamined. Trade deals that have created this global system for plunder and profit need to go. Regional, local, in season—the way it was for thousands of years is necessary.
Horrifyingly, food has been built on fossil fuels and created our population problem. It's difficult to see a way through this without massive tragedy with the cruel politics of the world we live in.
I appreciate your deep knowledge of this subject.
On 18 June, FAO and WFP launched the first joint anticipatory action appeal either agency has made: $202 million to protect 8.8 million people across 22 countries. They already had funding to reach 1.2 million. So it only needed $176 million more. In the weeks since then not a single traditional donor government has made a donation to this pro-active humanitarian aid. We are now only 8 weeks from when Southern Africa plants their only maize crop of the year right into the height of the El Niño. Without that aid providing drought resistant seed, fertilizer and fuel the people of Southern Africa are going to be facing an unprecedented crisis. We do need a new way to grow and distribute food. Incredible that neither the US, the 5 EU donors nor Japan that made foreign aid cuts in 2025 has reinstated that aid in the face of the largest /?El Niño in history. Cruel and Evil.
That is chump change, what, the cost of a couple of cruise missiles?
Hate to think it, hate to say it, but I believe after five years of research and writing population reduction is the goal, not a side effect of the energy, overshoot and climate crisis. Evil indeed.
Obvious design error for the canal, should have been large pipe between each end, so water from a lowering ship helps raise one going up. Yes, lots of plumbing, but obviously needed now.
The critical aspect of subsistence living is isolation from any assistance, essentially a rejection from human concern, and ignored because the Rich find nothing else there to extract.
They definitely need some new way. It's either ships or drinking water, hard choice during a drought. Lucky the early rains were strong so we don't have to see which water use the government would pick when push comes to shove!
Another wonder of science. I knew about the name; not about the famine that drove science. I get numb. By figures and - silence. Silence at this age; is supporting extinction. I just shared ... a new study dear You might find this - teardropping and unfortunately only underscoring your ( Tipping) points. Love you so so much. K E E P on! https://phys.org/news/2026-09-hot-climate-children-chances-birth.html?utm_source=nwletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-nwletter&fbclid=IwY2xjawUOxBBwZG9mAWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR6LKbbG4xUS17_HNX2ZAJJst13ODBLmPpuvssKs9eLRmEednR-Wdh7eCzcXgQ_aem_AR2p-KLMFhNF8O7beBltzw
Thanks so much for the comments and the article, I’ll take a look tomorrow!
You keep on too!
You bet. Yet you do not, as a sceintist;-) Dear Mark; Ill try to organize a global march. So.. I might not be - alwayes there. And Im blocked by fb again.. If.. I get through to global organisations with the "easy" idea; the first global march for P E A C E on E A R T H ( with Earth) Ill let you know, and I know you will walk with us. Love You!